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The Dance
Yet one asks ----"what has this to do with articles on Economics and Finance.?" An interesting question. It is but an analogy; something brought to mind as one attempts to peel back the veils that hide the allure of, and possibly the future of the European Union. Like peeling back several layers that cover the core and the essence and as well the future destiny of this amalgam of disparate humanity. Perhaps a microcosm of what was always envisioned as being the ultimate end result of "Globalization." An interesting thought, if held for but one fleeting moment. What is to be the destiny of this rapidly expanding political and economic union? It had such wonderful promise in its origins. Such lofty ideals in purpose and scope. Yet fate may decree otherwise. There seems to be an attempt to re-write History and the Geography of Europe. A turning back of the clock. One starts to question its future. Let us turn back the pages of history for a while. How far do we need to go back in time? Perhaps to the establishment of the Roman Empire would suffice. The Roman legions spread across Europe, conquered most of Central and Western Europe, turning each country into vassal states of the Roman Empire. However, no sooner had the power of the Romans waned, than each state or country reverted to their original identity. Historically and geographically, following the waxing and waning of succeeding Empires such as that of Genghis Khan: The Austro-Hungarian Empire of the Hapsburgs and that of Napoleon, that each in turn resulted in reverting to their ethnic, historical and geographic origins. With the collapse of The Russian Federation, the identical situation arose. Each ethnic group demanded their ethnic and political independence within recognized geographical boundaries. The collapse of the British, French, Belgium and Portuguese "empires" in Africa in the last 30 to 40 years, resulted in the immediate reversion into "tribalism" in each and every country; without a single exception. None of those countries can be described as stable political or economic entities. Surely all these historical factors point to the possibility that cohesion within disparate ethnic and cultural peoples is either difficult or impossible to obtain or maintain. Yugoslavia is another recent example. When the opportunity arose, each ethnic group went on a "cleansing” spree, resulting in the final formation of separate Serbian, Croat and Albanian independence, to the extent that the Serbs in turn split into two sectors of Serbia and Montenegro, each wanting political and economical control of their own destinies. Yet again, if one examines the history of Great Britain (The United Kingdom), its "unity" is such that for maybe a hundred years Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland clamored for "Home Rule." Which brings us to the modern concept of denying ethnic, geographic and political history --- in the formation of the European Union. The original concept was sound. The six strongest economic powers of Europe; with politically stable governments, banding together to form a cohesive trading block. Its economic growth was remarkable, the end result being the admission of first an additional four members to total ten, and finally another five, making up its present composition of 15 members. However the addition of the last five started to show the signs that all was not well with its concept. Perhaps three primary factors were responsible. The first being the proposed establishment of a common currency; the second being open borders; and the third being disparate immigration policies. Already the signs and the seeds of its own destruction are being sown. The concept of a centralized "government" or administrative body to enact laws and regulation common to all may in the end prove to be unworkable. Disparate economic strengths or weaknesses; disparate aspirations of both political and economic philosophy encompassing labour, tax and social laws and structures are a constant source of irritation and dissention. Agricultural output and disparate applications of government subsidization of agriculture and / or manufacturing output constantly erode goodwill and engender distrust and open animosity. Add to all this, the unequal distribution of the enhanced spoils generated from the massive increases in economic output between their members. Had it remained purely an economic union with the EURO currency merely being a common "trading currency" it stood a chance of success. Perhaps still stands a chance of success, should even just the "common currency" be altered in concept. By dissolving individual currencies, there is no longer a mechanism whereby disparate economic strengths or weaknesses can be adjusted to each other. Were each nation or "member" to have been allowed to maintain their individual currencies at stated strengths to the Euro as a common "trading currency;" there would remain that required ability to adjust domestic currencies to reflect their differences in economic strength (or buying power) to each other. This no longer exists. To take this a stage further. Open borders denote the unrestricted flow of both labour and capital. Because of this, highly trained and talented labour will flee weaker economies to stronger economies, where both better job opportunity and wage advancement exist. The same factor applies to the flight of much needed investment capital flows. The end result being the continued weakening of economies between member nations. The unrestricted flow of just these two entities in itself bodes ill for the future of the so-called "unity" that is meant to bind them economically. Each member has already an amalgam of both "visible" and /or "invisible" minorities. Each in turn has had different immigration philosophies for ethnic, religious, political or economic reason. Forgetting for a moment the fact that they may eventually have to agree to a common immigration policy, the present situation already presages problems when these minorities already existing within member states are allowed by law to migrate across existing " open borders." What may have been a minor "visible minority" in one country, having migrated to another where an identical minority exists, quickly alters the "status quo." Now highly visible, able to influence the political and economic and social structures of that country, brings forth a whole new concept of what may be the fate of several member states. Among the ten new states to be admitted within the next two years, the Island of Cyprus is an excellent example of what the future holds. The island is presently divided into two enclaves, the one under Greek, and the other under Turkish control. Despite efforts over the past 20 years, there has been no success in getting both factions to unify and jointly run the country. Yet despite this very situation, Cyprus was accepted as being one of the next ten expected members. Turkey in itself may one day become one of the final factors that spell out the breakup of the "Union." Here we have a country that was recently admitted to Nato. A country with a Moslem population in excess of 65 Million people. This ethnic addition to Nato already alters the complexity of its basic composition. Apart from this, Turkey was given to understand that they would as well be welcomed as one of the new members to the European Union, although their exclusion from the latest "list of ten" leads one to believe that the Union may already be having "second thoughts" on this understanding or undertaking. The addition of 65 million Moslems to the present and future ethnic mix of the European Union, would create a dramatic change to the present composition, with goodness knows what future result. These remarks are made without any intention of ridiculing ethnic or religious factors of either nations or nationalities. It is merely an examination of the reality that may either exist or have to be faced by the European Union. One is ever mindful of the twenty-eight years of problems that have beset Northern Ireland, and the recent ones of Yugoslavia. Ethnic and religious factors have to eventually exert an economic and social strain on the political spectrum, keeping in mind the disparity in the birthrates between member states. Add to this conundrum the admittance of the contemplated ten new members within the short time span of two years, all of whom presently are basically weak economies, does not auger well for the future. To all this we have to add the specter of a continuing recession which exists at present, and which can take several more years before showing signs of being "over." This article was written at the beginning of March of the year 2003. The debate both within the United Nations, the European Union and world - wide regarding the possibility of war with Iraq, has created tremendous dissention throughout the world. Within the European Union it has become very evident that consensus is non - existent. More to the point it has shown that economic, ethnic, religious and political agendas exist and influence decision-making. For those original founders of the "Union" it must surely be a warning sign of what the future may hold. If the structure is based on a "one man - one vote" (equal vote per member), it must surely now is a matter of concern as a rapid increase in membership is undertaken. IN THE DISTANCE THE SOUND OF MUSIC BEING HEARD. BRING ON THE DANCING GIRLS.
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The Dance of The Seven Veils was perhaps the
forerunner of the modern version performed by "strippers." Depicted by
Hollywood, it portends to have started centuries ago in the Arabian countries of
North Africa and / or as well the Arabian and Persian countries that skirt the
borders of the Mediterranean Sea. Whether its origins were in Turkey and spread
west, or ended in Turkey, as Belly Dancing is moot. The allure of the female
body has titillated the minds and senses of men from "way back
when"---- perhaps as far back to the biblical "fig-leaf" era The
sensuous gyrations, the swaying of .the hips and the language in the movement of
arms, hands and feet heightening expectations, as each veil fluttered to the
floor, revealing ever more of what charms had laid hidden from the eyes of the
male audience. Invariably it was either in a tent in the desert, under starry
skies, or depicted as being performed for guests in the sumptuous environs of
some potentates marble palace.